Two to go Which teams are best-placed to make the eight
As September gets closer, there are now 12 teams that can still play finals football in what has proven to be another chaotic season.
Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Geelong and Port Adelaide will almost certainly finish in the top four, but in what order will only be finalised once round 23 is settled.
And down the other end of the eight, the intrigue grows. We asked last week if anyone actually wanted eighth spot. That was answered loud and clear by Greater Western Sydney, with their victory over Geelong on Friday one of their more famous home-and-away efforts. Richmond are back in the frame but poor percentage could ultimately sink St Kilda’s and Fremantle’s hopes. For Blues fans, the sun has set on their season.
Here is the state of play heading into round 22.
1. MELBOURNE62 points 130.7%
RUN HOME: West Coast (Win), Adelaide (H), Geelong (A)
WE SAY: The Demons have made a statement over the past fortnight, demolishing the Suns and then building on this with an impressive win in Perth over the Eagles on Monday night to return to the top of the ladder. They should easily handle the Crows next week but a round 23 clash against the Cats could determine whether they finish as the minor premiers for the first time in 57 years.
Melbourne star Christian Petracca.Credit:AFL Photos
2. WESTERN BULLDOGS60 pts 138.1%
RUN HOME: Essendon (Lost), Hawthorn (A), Port Adelaide (H)
WE SAY: The Dogs had a golden opportunity to take outright top spot on Sunday but the Bombers, with seven goals from Peter Wright, had other ideas. They are in a fierce battle to claim the minor premiership for the first time, for they now face the resurgent Hawks and fellow flag contenders the Power. Having lost key defender Alex Keath (hamstring) last week, they are now without key forward Josh Bruce. Does Tim English go forward or can Jamarra Ugle-Hagan step up?
Marcus Bontempelli revels in the moment after booting a goal against St Kilda earlier in the season.Credit:AFL Photos
3. GEELONG60 points 129.1%
RUN HOME: Giants (Lost), St Kilda (H), Melbourne (H)
WE SAY: There is no need for the Cats to panic despite a miserable Friday night when they were upended by the Giants and lost Gary Rohan and Zach Tuohy to injury. A top-four spot is within hand, but they will probably need to beat the Saints and Demons to secure a home final. Momentum has stalled but the return of Jeremy Cameron this week could not have been better timed.
60 points 121.3%
RUN HOME: Adelaide (Won), Carlton (H), Western Bulldogs (A)
WE SAY: The Power are one of the more difficult clubs to read but a four-game winning streak has them all but locked in for a top-four finish. A season-closing clash against the Bulldogs could determine whether they get a home final. The return of Robbie Gray from injury has been important, but it remains to be seen if the Power can truly match it with the Cats, Demons and Bulldogs.
52 points 128.1%
RUN HOME: Fremantle (Won), Collingwood (H), West Coast (H)
WE SAY: The Lions may have squandered a top-four berth but their inspired effort against Fremantle on Sunday has at least locked up a top-six spot, and delivered a burst of momentum. They reversed a run of poor starts, while Joe Daniher must continue to be a match-winning threat inside attacking 50. There is no reason why they cannot win their final two matches.
52 points 118.0%
RUN HOME: St Kilda (Loss), North Melbourne (A), Gold Coast (H)
WE SAY: The Swans have spent weeks on the road and are now reunited with loved ones in Melbourne. But they weren’t feeling the love on Saturday after a surprise loss to the Saints torpedoed their hopes of a top-four berth. Perhaps this loss came at a good time, and they can now regroup ahead of the final fortnight of home-and-away matches. Lance Franklin is closing in on 1000 goals in what shapes as one of the Swans’ more remarkable seasons in recent times.
40 pts 95.5%
RUN HOME: Melbourne (Loss), Fremantle (A), Brisbane (A)
WE SAY: Adam Simpson was right when he said he couldn’t believe his Eagles were still in the top eight despite a season of frustration, highlighted by losses to Collingwood â€" having conceded the opening eight goals â€" and Melbourne over the past fortnight. But such is the unpredictability of the season that they are likely to beat Fremantle and rubber-stamp a post-season berth.
38 pts 96.4%
RUN HOME: Geelong (Win), Richmond (H), Carlton (A)
WE SAY: Inspired by the USA’s “Miracle on Ice†win over the Soviet Union in 1980, the injury-hit Giants conjured one of the great wins in club history over the Cats to grab eighth spot â€" for the time being. Consistency has been a major issue, but the equation is now simple â€" beat the Tigers and Blues, and they are in the finals. They can still reach September even if they only defeat the Tigers.
GWS upset the Cats last weekend.Credit:Getty Images
9. ESSENDON36 pts 103.4%
RUN HOME: Western Bulldogs (Win), Gold Coast (A), Collingwood (H)
WE SAY: Just when it appeared the Bombers had run out of steam, they produce one of the performances of the season to topple the Bulldogs. They play an exciting brand of footy and there is no reason why they cannot finish the season with wins over the Suns and Magpies. Importantly, they have a healthier percentage than the Giants. They will continue to look to Darcy Parish, Dylan Shiel, Jake Stringer and Zach Merrett to lead the way.
36 pts 100.1%
RUN HOME: North Melbourne (Win), Greater Western Sydney (A), Hawthorn (H)
WE SAY: The Tigers pulled themselves out of a hole against North Melbourne and now face what shapes as a season-defining clash against the Giants. They continue to back their system and believe they can do damage in September â€" should they get there. Dustin Martin is gone, but there is still enough talent to slip into September.
36 pts 90.9%
RUN HOME: Brisbane (Loss), West Coast (H), St Kilda (A)
WE SAY: Fremantle surprised many by toppling Richmond, despite the absence of Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters, but they may have fallen off a cliff against the Lions on Sunday. The Dockers now face a pivotal derby against the Eagles, while the Saints will also be tough to beat. Regardless of results, Andrew Brayshaw has been superb and shapes as a future captain.
36 pts 88.2%
RUN HOME: Sydney (Win), Geelong (A), Fremantle (H)
WE SAY: It’s hard to believe the Saints are technically still in the hunt in a season of perpetual frustration. Case in point â€" having been on a three-game losing streak, including a heavy loss to the Blues, they rebounded by ending the Swans’ top-four hopes. Now comes a season-defining clash against the smarting Cats. Co-captain Jack Steele has been superb, while Jack Higgins has rediscovered his goal-kicking boots.
32 pts 93.3%
RUN HOME: Gold Coast (Loss), Port Adelaide (A), Greater Western Sydney (H)
WE SAY: The loss to Gold Coast ended their finals hopes, for they needed to win their last three matches. That they were still even in the hunt was staggering considering they had not beaten an opponent that was in the top eight when they played through the season.
Jon Pierik is a sports journalist at The Age. He covers AFL and has won awards for his cricket and basketball writing.
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